- The RBA has kept the cash rate on hold at 3.60%.
- No change in interest rates was the almost universal expectation among market economists, and financial markets priced very low odds of a reduction (just a 3.5% probability of a cut was priced).
- The RBA says “domestic economic activity is recovering but the outlook remains uncertain.”
- The RBA’s August Statement of Monetary Policy forecasts were predicated on a further two interest rate reductions being required to underpin the forecast modest strengthening in GDP growth and to maintain unemployment at 4.3% and inflation close to target at 2.6%.
- Current market pricing does not factor in another cut until February next year following recent stronger consumer spending and higher monthly inflation data.
- Consumers with mortgages and businesses will be disappointed that the data have not allowed the Board to deliver a further interest rate reduction. While previous interest rate cuts have reduced some of the pressure, overall cost of living and cost of doing business pressures remain challenging.
- A gradual pace of easing would be appropriate with the labour market still assessed to be a little tight, inflation forecast to be a little above the midpoint of the target band and signs of some recovery in private demand.
- A faster pace of easing would likely be appropriate if it was revealed that the labour market was already in balance, inflation began to undershoot the target or the balance of risks shifted to the downside.
Chief Economist
Interest Rates
Chief Economist
Ivan joined CreditorWatch as Chief Economist in October 2024. He is a highly experienced chief economist and keynote speaker on the economy and financial markets.
Most recently, Ivan was Chief Economist, Corporate & Institutional Banking for National Australia Bank, but has also been Chief Economist for Qantas and Chief Economist (Australia) for ANZ and Deutsche Bank. Ivan has also consulted to SEEK, IATA and Virgin Australia.
Ivan holds a Bachelor of Economics with Honours from the University of Tasmania and commenced his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia.
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