Australia’s credit landscape is moving fast. To help credit teams, CFOs and business owners stay ahead of turning points – not just react to them – we’ve launched the CreditorWatch Business Risk Monitor (BRM), a monthly report that distils millions of live credit signals into an accurate, practical read on business health.
It delivers unique insights you won’t find anywhere else, reveals the real‑world drivers behind the headlines and provides forward‑looking indicators to support proactive risk management.
The BRM brings together five pillars that credit and finance professionals can act on: the B2B Payment Default Index, Credit Rating Barometer, Small Business Failure Rate Series, Geo‑Risk Index, and Economic Conditions Tracker.
Together, they track payment stress and failure risk by sector, credit rating band and region, providing an early-warning system that consistently identifies pressure points before they appear in official statistics.
What makes the BRM different is the depth of CreditorWatch’s proprietary data – from registered trade payment defaults to ATO tax‑debt defaults – combined with market‑leading credit ratings and context from respected Chief Economist Ivan Colhoun.
Its SME lens also captures risk building in supply chains earlier than traditional macro series.
- Payment stress is elevated – The B2B Payment Default Index jumped 19% in July and held that higher level in August, a classic precursor to future insolvencies. Companies with four or more registered trade defaults recorded business failure rates above 50% over the past year (including strike‑offs and voluntary deregistrations), underlining the value of default alerts in your monitoring workflow.
- Insolvencies dipped but remain high and uneven – August saw a notable fall in first‑time insolvencies, yet levels are still elevated, with Construction and Hospitality dominating by volume. Interpreting the dip requires caution given the decline in small‑business restructures and changing ATO interest‑charge settings.
- Risk concentrates at the lower end of the rating spectrum – E-rated businesses experienced a 41.6% failure rate in the 12 months to August – critical intelligence for limit setting and collections prioritisation.
- Tax‑debt distress is a powerful lead indicator – About 26% of businesses with ATO tax debts over $100k became insolvent within 12 months, with an average 235‑day lead time – actionable notice for tightening terms, seeking security or reducing exposure.
- Payment arrears are creeping up. 60‑plus‑day arrears rose to 6.0% in August (from 5.8% in July), reinforcing the need for dynamic credit limits and automated follow‑ups.
- Risk is regionally uneven. Inner‑metro Adelaide, regional Victoria and North Queensland rank among the best‑performing regions, while Western Sydney and South‑East Queensland contain clusters of highest risk – vital context for location‑based underwriting.
Download the Business Risk Monitor to gain ongoing access to charts, commentary and region, sector and rating-level insights that help you reduce risk exposure and trade with confidence.
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